Tuesday, January 17, 2006

White Strands On Feces

PERUVIAN ECONOMY: Give to Caesar what is Caesar

PERUVIAN ECONOMY: Give to Caesar what is Caesar

national macroeconomic indicators go well. But things look differently if we compare with other developing countries. This comparison also allows us to determine whether the results of recent years are the result of good policies or are the product of favorable international conditions. If it were good policy, Peru should estar mejor que el resto. En cambio, si el resultado se ha logrado sólo porque las condiciones internacionales son buenas, los indicadores macroeconómicos serán positivos pero no mejores que los de los demás países.

El indicador preferido de los economistas es el crecimiento del PBI, que nos dice cuánto producimos en total. En los últimos 4 años (2001-2005), el PBI del Perú ha crecido 4,9% anual en promedio, sin duda una cifra positiva. Pero el promedio de los países emergentes y en desarrollo (cifras FMI) es de 6,2%, bastante por encima del Perú. Conclusión: son las condiciones internacionales las que han impulsado la economía peruana hacia delante, y la política económica has not been better than other developing countries. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski does not need to boast.

The second fundamental macroeconomic indicator is inflation, and those who have experienced the trauma of hyperinflation know how important it is to have stable prices. In the past four years, inflation in Peru has been only 2.0% on average, while the average of developing countries is 5.9%. Until the U.S. economy has had an inflation rate higher than the Peruvian, with an average of 2.4%. Peruvian inflation in recent years has been one of the lowest in the world and our history. Applause for the directory Central Reserve Bank, whose role under the Constitution is precisely that: to keep prices stable.

interest rates, another key macroeconomic variable are combined result of both institutions. On the one hand, the Central Bank monetary policy makes more or less money and credit in the economy, and supply management that makes interest rates rise or fall. On the other hand, the Superintendency of Banking and Insurance promotes (or no) competition and defend (or not) the public interest, making the profit margin of banks is reduced or enlarged. Between 2000 and 2005, the difference between what banks pay to depositors and what they charge for loans in soles, also called spread has increased from 17% to 23% annually, so that bank profits achieved record levels. It is clear that the Superintendency of Banks has been doing a good job. At the same time, thanks to the policy of the BCR, a one year term loan in 2000 now costs 26.5% cost nearly half: 14%.

An economic assessment of the five to be placed properly merits and demerits, and compare with the world is essential for it. Economic growth has been lower than the average for developing countries, where it appears that this growth is due to the international context and not politics neoliberal PPK, has also concentrated on a few benefits. The presiding Oscar BCR Dancourt it has managed to lower inflation than other countries, to benefit all Peruvians.

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